PHASE ONE (1) AND TWO (2)

Phase One (Infection) ran from January through mid-March. In this period, there was no social distancing and no active management — the virus was passing quickly, at a “one infected person infects two people” rate.

Phase Two (Social Distancing), which will last from March through mid-May. In this period, we will see infections in the US rise to 500,000–700,000 — the aftereffect of Phase One — peaking in late April or early May. While infections are increasing, social distancing via the shutdown of schools and work at home for businesses will have a significant impact on the spread of the disease. This societal investment will pay off as the number of new infections will begin to decline in late April and then begin to plummet in early May.