PHASES THREE (3) AND FOUR (4)

Phase Three (Management), which will last from mid-May through the end of the year and into 2021. Pandemic Management Protocols (PMPs), ways of working, traveling, congregating, eating, moving, and connecting, will have to be constructed and maintained by governments, companies, schools, and all organizations in society. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China are now in this phase, with rigorous societal rules (e.g., face masks and gloves) and strict governmental management of the population using tracking apps and police enforcement of quarantining for the sick and those that are entering from other countries. But schools are reopening, people are eating in restaurants, workers are going to work, and the populations are resuming a form of normal life. This management phase will necessitate strong governmental intervention and rules — likely requiring masks and gloves for everyone in public places like subways and very strict enforcement of quarantines for the ill. There will be new breakouts of infection, but with improved public health response, availability of tested antivirals, and near-universal quick testing, they will be managed and curtailed. As part of their PMPs, companies and other organizations will have to build their own logistical systems — vetting people before they enter office buildings, carefully monitoring and managing their workforce’s health and condition, and limiting travel and gatherings. 

Phase Four (Eradication) will occur in April–June of 2021 as a vaccine becomes available.

While Phase Two will be psychologically challenging due to the continued growth of infections, the real game will be played in Phase Three. Restarting the economy and resuming commerce will depend on the rigor of governmental management and the willingness of individuals to abide by rules and protocols to control the virus. If Phase Three is mismanaged by companies, provinces and Government, we will not drop back to Phase Two — we will loop back to Phase One and start the process from the beginning. This will risk a year-long disruption of the economy rather than the three-month disruption caused by Phase Two.

A final complication will be management variability by region and state, making it more difficult to move all states into Phase Three at one time. The role of the government will be the difference maker here — if it requires uniform adherence to conservative protocols, the country will have the best chance to resume true inter-state commerce (e.g., air travel).